The Florida House meets on Nov. 7, 2023.(Photo by Michael Moline/Florida Phoenix)
Florida Democrats headed into this year’s legislative elections with hopes they would end the GOP supermajorities that made it much easier for that party to push through a long line of controversial measures dealing with everything from abortion to race and gender.
But a solid red wave — including a double-digit win for former President Donald Trump — washed all of that away.
Instead, Republicans retained firm control in both the House and Senate.
Up one seat in the House
Republicans were able to flip from blue to red two House seats, although one of those wins is within the margin of a recount, while the Democrats were only able to pick up one seat.
If the counts hold, Republicans will hold 86 seats in the chamber for the next two years and Democrats 34. That’s one more seat than the Republicans held following the 2022 elections.
Republicans easily took out Rep. Tom Keen, who had won the seat in a special election just 10 months before. At the time, the win buoyed hope for change for Florida Democrats. But the rematch between Keen and Republican Erika Booth produced a much different outcome, with Booth earning more than 52% of the vote.
Republicans appear to have ousted Democrat incumbent Rep. Katherine Waldron, although that race appears headed to a recount. Waldron earned 49.8% compared to Republican challenger Anne Gerwig’s 50.2% of the vote.
Florida elections law requires a machine recount if the vote margin between the candidates is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total cast. If the machine recount returns a margin of defeat less than or equal to 0.25% of total votes, a manual recount of overvote and under votes occurs.
Republicans were not, however, able to win the HD 60 race in Pinellas County despite spending in excess of $1 million on television ads to defeat Democratic incumbent Rep. Lindsay Cross. She defeated her Republican challenger Ed Montanari, earning nearly 54% of the vote.
The Florida Democratic Party had announced its Take Back Florida Distinction Initiative, listing 21 seats it hoped to win in the 2024 elections, including many House seats in Central Florida. Democrats on the stump stressed access to abortion and opposition to the state’s six-week abortion ban, soaring homeowner’s insurance property rates, and lack of affordable housing.
The message did not resonate with enough voters to make a difference. Specifically, the Democrats needed to flip five seats in the House to hold enough clout to at a minimum be a procedural force in the chamber.
Democrats appear to have defeated Republican incumbent Rep. Carolina Amesty in the HD 45 race. Amesty, who narrowly won election in 2022 and was indicted on forgery charges in April, took 49.9 % of the vote compared to Democrat Leonard Spencer, who garnered 50.1%
And Democrats retained HD 89, an open seat in Palm Beach County that was previously held by Democrat Daniel Silvers, forced out of the Legislature due to term limits. Democrat Debra Tendrich earned 51.4% of the vote in that race, edging her opponent.
Lost close races
Democrats lost close races in Central Florida which, if the counts stand, all appear to be outside a machine recount.
Twenty-three-year old Democrat Nate Douglas failed to oust Republican incumbent Susan Plasencia. Plasencia earned 50.42% of the vote compared to Douglas’s 49.58%. And in neighboring HD 38, Democrat Sarah Henry was unable to take down Republican David Smith, earning 49.58% of the vote compared to Smith’s 50.42%.
Republican Paula Stark will return to Tallahassee in HD 47. The Democratic Party directed funds to Democrat Maria Revelles hoping to capture the district containing parts of Orange and Osceola counties. Stark earned 51% of the vote.
“Tonight, Floridians have returned a historic Republican supermajority to the Florida House of Representatives. Our members, our candidates, and our team at House Campaigns pulled together to bring our conservative message to the voters,” incoming House Speaker Daniel Perez said in a statement.
Meanwhile, the Florida Senate remains in control of Republicans. Democrats emphasized just one seat in the upper chamber, SD 3, held by Republican Corey Simon. But the former NFL player and Florida State University football standout handily defeated Democratic challenger and civil rights attorney Daryl Parks.
Reaction
The Florida Chamber of Commerce issued a statement noting that 101 of the 103 candidates it backed in state legislative seats won their races.
“Congratulations to the 98% of Florida Chamber pro-jobs candidates who won their General Election races,” said Mark Wilson, the Chamber’s president and CEO. “We are confident those elected will work to pass the right pro-jobs policy, and alongside a united Florida business community, Florida will continue to grow and further diversify its economy.”