Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters in a campaign visit to Council Bluffs on July 7, 2023. (Photo by Jared Strong/Iowa Capital Dispatch)
Former President Donald Trump won Iowa in the 2024 presidential election, the Associated Press projected Tuesday in what was a closer race than initially expected for the state.
The AP called the race at 9:40 p.m. with 56% of votes counted in unofficial results. Trump stands at 55.8% and Harris at 42.8% as of 9:45 p.m. in Iowa. Results have not yet been finalized.
Many election forecasters predicted that Trump would win Iowa again in 2024, after he won the state in 2016 and 2020. But in the final days before the election, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll published Saturday found that Harris gained an unanticipated lead over Trump, with 47% of likely voters in the poll saying they support the Vice President while 44% supported Trump.
Independent women and women age 65 or older were shown in the poll to support Harris over Trump by large margins, indicating that these voter groups could be the edge needed to secure Democrats’ victory in 2024 elections.
Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann came to the stage at the GOP Election Night watch party in Des Moines before the AP called the race to declare that Iowa had given Trump a win “we always knew was going to happen.”
“Our people knew that Iowa was going to be for Trump, and then we got this outlier that was not double checked, that was professional malpractice,” Kaufmann said. “So let’s say it one more time … Donald Trump won Iowa.”
Trump initially entered the 2024 election with strong assurance of Iowa GOP support, dominating the 2024 Republican caucuses in January against contenders like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
But Trump was not the only presidential candidate who spent significant time in Iowa. Though Harris became the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee in August shortly after President Joe Biden announced ending his reelection campaign, both Democrats spent time in the state for the 2020 Democratic caucuses.
However, neither Biden or Harris saw major enthusiasm in 2020 coming from the former first-in-the-nation state. Harris withdrew her bid for the nomination in December 2019, before the Iowa caucuses. Biden, who went on to become the Democratic nominee, came in fourth place in the caucuses, behind now-U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Because of issues with reporting results from the 2020 caucuses, as well as criticisms of issues like a lack of diversity, the Democratic nominating calendar changed beginning in 2024. Iowa Democrats held its first mail-in caucuses this year with results released on Super Tuesday in March, overwhelmingly supporting Biden for reelection.
As the 2024 general election approached, Iowa did not see the surge of visits from presidential candidates or surrogates to Iowa that nearby states like Wisconsin and Michigan – swing states – saw, as both major parties predicted that Trump would easily win in the state. However, Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart predicted that Harris replacing Biden at the top of ticket would make Iowa more competitive than initially expected.
While Trump did not visit Iowa following the January caucuses, many Iowa Republicans have joined the former president on the campaign trail in other states. Elected officials like U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson have held events supporting Trump and other GOP candidates in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia in the weeks ahead of Nov. 5. Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird and Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann spoke at the 2024 Republican National Convention in July, holding significant nominating roles during the event.
Iowa voters vary in enthusiasm for the candidates
Vicky Scott, 73, said that she has been a supporter of Trump since he was on “The Apprentice” and wanted to return to Trump’s tenure in office, calling it the “best four years of my life.”
“I always thought to myself, you know, ‘that guy needs to run for president someday,” Scott said. “I don’t like politicians, and he wasn’t one, and he has never been one. … The day he walked down the elevator was probably the best day of my life, because I thought to myself, ‘Oh, my God, it came true, my wish came true.’ Yeah, so that four years was phenomenal.”
Some Trump voters weren’t always on board with him.
Troy King, 50, and his 20-year-old son, Caden King, who was voting in his first presidential election, said they cast their ballots for Trump, both citing concerns about the economy under the Biden administration.
The two voted at the Linn precinct in Norwalk over the noon hour on Tuesday.
Troy King said he didn’t vote for Trump in 2016. “I didn’t vote for Hillary (Clinton) either, but I felt like my vote was wasted.”
He said he felt comfortable with Trump’s policies during his time in office.
Caden King, who plans to study business at Des Moines Area Community College, said he’s “just not liking where the economy is going.”
Another Norwalk voter, Shawn Powers, said he was a “never Trumper” before this year and cast his ballot for third-party candidates. But he said he voted for Trump this year because he has a fundamental difference in world view with progressives.
“It’s about an ideological way of looking at the world,” he said, adding that he’s pro-life and disagrees with “trans(gender)-ing our children.”
Asked whether he was concerned about whether Trump would undermine the legitimacy of the election if he lost, Powers said, “I think our Constitution is more durable than one person.”
Some Harris voters were more concerned about the future of U.S. democracy.
On Des Moines’ south side, Scott and Ruth Thompson braved a light rain to cast their ballots at the Wakonda Christian Church on Fleur Drive.They pulled up to the voting site in a car festooned with a “Harris/Walz” window sticker and “Unions for Harris” sign in the rear window.
“I used to be a Republican,” Scott Thompson said, adding that it was former U.S. Rep. Steve King, known for his far-right stance on many issues, who caused him to rethink his party affiliation.
“By education, I am a sociologist,” Thompson said. “And I am scared to death that democracy is slipping away from us in this country. Electing Kamala Harris won’t necessarily fix all of that, but if we were to elect Donald Trump, you can be damn sure it wouldn’t ever get fixed and that he would put us even further behind. He is so unstable and he doesn’t have the leadership ability to do the job. Even worse, he doesn’t have the necessary people surrounding him to staff the leadership roles and cabinet positions in his administration.”
Thompson’s wife, Ruth, agreed.
“I know Joe Biden has some deficiencies, but he has good people around him, and he listens to people – so I can sleep at night,” she said. “But Trump just has degenerates around him – people like him. And who knows if he even listens to them.”
Some Harris voters in Des Moines said Tuesday they aren’t entirely thrilled with their choice.
John Neale, 38, who voted in Des Moines, said he cast his ballot to “make sure Trump doesn’t get in office again.”
Neale said he would have preferred a different Democratic candidate to support, saying he’s unhappy with the Biden administration’s handling of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. But he said he supports abortion rights for women and hopes to see a better path to citizenship for immigrants.
Mark Rouw, 67, said he would have liked to hear more about the environment from the candidates. He said he settled on voting for Harris because Democrats at least recognize the problem of climate change. “Republicans don’t seem to do anything,” he said.
Clark Kauffman and Kathie Obradovich contributed to this report.