In bid to win the legislature, Dems flex their cash advantage amid record spending

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A staggering amount of money has been spent on the fight over control of the Arizona Legislature, with outside groups pouring more than $17 million into a handful of battleground races.

The spending has been fueled by a flurry of activity in the final two weeks of the election season, which saw outside spending on legislative races double. In that time, more than $8.5 million in new independent expenditures on legislative races has been reported to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office.

Hanging in the balance is which party will hold power at the Arizona Capitol in January when lawmakers reconvene for the annual legislative session. Republicans have held nearly uninterrupted legislative majorities since 1966, but Democrats view 2024 as the best chance they’ve had to reverse that.

An Arizona Mirror analysis of independent expenditure data reveals that the infusion of outside money has created a stark advantage for Democrats in the 13 most competitive contests. Across those key races, pro-Democrat IEs totaled slightly more than $10 million, compared to $7.37 million for pro-Republican efforts.

More of that money has gone to races for the House of Representatives ($9.54 million), which has 60 members from 30 districts, than the state Senate ($7.85 million), which has 30 members from those same districts. 

Democratic groups have outspent their Republican counterparts $5.72 million to $3.82 million on 22 House candidates in seven districts. Likewise, in Senate contests, Democrats have spent more than Republicans on 11 candidates in six races, $4.3 million to $3.55 million.

The Mirror found only three races in which outside groups spent more to help GOP candidates than Democrats: the District 13 Senate contest, the District 16 House race and the District 17 House.

Even among the battleground races, the money has been concentrated in a few contests, with the top five races accounting for nearly $10 million of that spending. 

Two races attracted more than $2 million in outside spending each. 

The battle for the two House seats in Chandler-based District 13 has attracted the most money from outside groups, with $2.43 million flowing into the contest. Nearly two-thirds of that — more than $1.5 million — has gone to boost Democratic newcomers Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales, with about $880,000 spent trying to persuade voters to back incumbent Republican Rep. Julie Willoughby and former GOP lawmaker Jeff Weninger.

And voters in north Phoenix’s District 2 have been bombarded with $2.35 million in outside spending in the Senate tilt between incumbent Shawnna Bolick, a Republican, and Democratic state Rep. Judy Schwiebert. The lion’s share of that spending, more than $1.3 million, has gone to help Schwiebert, with another $1 million backing Bolick. 

In Senate contests, Republican spending has been largely defensive, with two candidates — J.D. Mesnard in District 13 and Vince Leach in District 17 — accounting for almost $1.4 million in outside spending, about 40% of pro-GOP spending in Senate races. But Republicans have gone on the offensive in the District 16 House race, where they hope to oust Democrat Keith Seaman, outspending Democrats $800,000 to about $550,000.

The outside spending in these targeted races significantly outpaces the candidates’ own fundraising efforts, and by large margins in many cases.

The top outside groups spending in battleground legislative races are:

• Future Freedoms ($4.5 million), which is supporting Democrats
• Chispa AZ PAC ($3.2 million), which is supporting Democrats 
• House Victory Fund ($1.8 million), which is supporting Republicans
• Responsible Leadership for AZ ($1.5 million), which is supporting Republicans
• Arizona Senate Victory Fund PAC ($1.4 million), which is supporting Republicans
• Stand For Children Arizona ($1.1 million), which is supporting Democrats
• Working Families ($1.1 million), which is supporting Democrats

The level of outside spending has increased dramatically from 2022, when a little more than $11 million was spent in battleground legislative contests. That escalation has been driven by focused spending in races that both sides see as key to controlling the legislature: In 2022, only one contest saw more than $1 million in outside spending, compared to nine this year.

The spending has largely been concentrated in suburban legislative districts, which have been key to Democratic electoral victories in Arizona in recent years, including in 2022, when Democrats captured nearly every statewide office, among them governor, secretary of state and attorney general.

If the Democratic gambit pays off and the party wins control of the legislature, it will come as relief to Gov. Katie Hobbs, who has feuded bitterly with Republican lawmakers during the first two years of her term and seen much of her agenda tossed aside by a legislature whose majority isn’t interested in her plans or priorities.

Corporation Commission

The only statewide offices on the ballot this year are three of the five seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission, which primarily regulates the state’s gas, electric and water utilities. 

There has been a little more than $2 million spent on the race, all of it to help the three Democrats: Ylenia Aguilar, Jonathon Hill and Joshua Polacheck. About $1.8 million has been expended to promote their campaigns, and another $200,000 has been spent attacking GOP candidate Rachel Walden.

Nothing has been spent for or against the other two Republicans, incumbent Lea Marquez Peterson and Rene Lopez.

The vast majority of the pro-Democratic money in the race has gone to boost Aguilar, who has benefitted from more than $1.1 million in outside spending.