Neighbors in Biddeford, Maine display competing yard signs for presidential nominees Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. (Photo by Maine Morning Star)
Amid concerns about election integrity and political violence, Vice President Kamala Harris still leads among Maine voters while former President Donald Trump maintains a slim lead in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, according to polling data released over the weekend.
Harris’ lead dipped slightly, compared to August results, but a majority (52%) of likely voters in Maine said they have either already or will vote for the Democratic presidential nominee, according to The Pine Tree State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center released Sunday. Another 41% of Mainers said they have already or will vote for Trump, leaving a fraction of voters saying they would pick third party or independent candidates.
However, Trump is still leading among 2nd Congressional District voters with 48% saying they have or will vote for the Republican candidate, compared to 44% for Harris.
If either candidate fails to gain 50% of the vote, ranked-choice voting will come into play, since there are five declared candidates on the Maine presidential ballot. It remains to be seen how this will intersect with Maine’s unique system, which awards electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote and each congressional district.
With a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, the poll’s overall findings are in line with other recent surveys, including one released last week that took into account ranked-choice voting and projected that Trump would ultimately prevail in CD2, earning him one electoral vote.
According to the UNH survey, when Mainers were asked who they think is likely to win the presidential election, it was an even split between Trump and Harris, with about one-fifth of respondents saying they are unsure. The poll also found Harris supporters to be less confident that the vice president will win than they were in August.
Election integrity and violence
Overall, more than eight in 10 likely Maine voters feel “very” or “somewhat” confident their vote will be counted accurately.
While that assurance is felt among virtually all Democrats (99%) only about two-thirds of Republicans have that same confidence.
Similarly, nearly nine in 10 Mainers are concerned that people will try to interfere with the election process in the next year using illegal or violent methods. Democrats across the board (96%) are worried that political leaders will violently or illegally try to seize power, the poll found.
Regardless of political party, there is less concern among Mainers that they themselves or someone they know will be violently attacked for their political beliefs.
The Pine Tree State Poll surveyed 1,552 people between Oct. 29-Nov. 2 using a sample drawn from a web panel of Maine residents and inviting others via text message. Included in the sample were 1,485 likely general election voters.
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