As a volatile presidential election comes to a close, Vermonters are concerned that political leaders will break the law to gain or hold on to power, that leaders they support will face violence and that people will seek to interfere with elections.
That’s according to the latest Green Mountain State Election Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, between Oct. 29 and Nov. 2. The online survey of 992 likely voters had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8%.
While Vermonters appear concerned about the state of national politics, they seem more sanguine about their own interactions with the democratic process. Eighty-six percent of those polled said they felt confident their own vote in Tuesday’s general election would be counted accurately — and most Vermonters said they were not concerned that they or anyone they knew would face political violence.
The survey center found no great surprises when querying Vermonters on how they intended to vote in the presidential and state elections.
Democratic presidential candidates reliably win Vermont by overwhelming margins, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the party’s nominee, appears likely to maintain the tradition, the poll found. Sixty-three percent of those surveyed said they intended to vote for Harris — or had already done so — while only 31% said they backed former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
Incumbents in state elections are also on track for similar success, according to the poll, though it did not ask voters about Vermont’s lieutenant gubernatorial election, in which incumbent Democratic/Progressive Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman faces Republican challenger John Rodgers, a former Democratic state senator. That race is generally seen as among the only competitive statewide elections in Vermont this year.
Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who is seeking a fifth two-year term, can count on the votes of 65% of those surveyed, while his Democratic challenger, Esther Charlestin, can expect only 26% of the vote, the poll found. As is typical for Scott, his support comes from across the political spectrum. Fifty percent of Democrats said they had voted or would vote for him, while only 44% of Democrats said they had voted or would vote for Charlestin, their own party’s nominee. Seventy-two percent of independents and 90% of Republicans said they backed Scott.
Charlestin, a political newcomer who has struggled to gain purchase, remains unknown by half of the electorate, the poll found. While those who knew of her were more likely to have a favorable impression than an unfavorable one, a full 50% of respondents said they did not know enough about her to say.
In the state’s congressional races, the two incumbents up for reelection, like Scott, were poised for blowouts, according to the poll.
Sixty-four percent of those surveyed said they’d send U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., back to Capitol Hill for another six years, while only 27% said they favored Republican challenger Gerald Malloy.
Similarly, in the race to represent Vermont in the U.S. House, incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Becca Balint was leading Republican challenger Mark Coester 62% to 22%.
Answers to questions about election integrity and political violence showed considerable unease among Vermonters.
The vast majority of those surveyed said they were somewhat (39%) or very (50%) concerned that, in the next year, people would seek to “interfere with the election process using illegal or violent methods.” A similar share, meanwhile, said they were somewhat (33%) or very (51%) concerned that political leaders would “use illegal or violent methods to gain or hold onto power” in the next year.
Asked whether they were concerned that leaders they supported would be “violently attacked because of their political beliefs or affiliation” in the next year, 52% said somewhat and 33% said very.
In all three cases, Democrats expressed more worry about these potential outcomes, though sizable majorities of Republicans and independents said they felt similarly.
Fewer Vermonters said they feared that they or someone they knew would themselves be “violently attacked” due to their political beliefs or affiliations. A little more than one-third said they were somewhat (26%) or very (12%) concerned, while most said they were not very concerned (40%) or not concerned at all (21%).
Most Vermonters said that, despite their overall fears about the democratic process, they believed their vote would be accurately counted this week.
Two thirds of those surveyed said they were somewhat confident (21%) or very confident (66%) that their vote would be counted, while only 10% said they were not very confident and 4% said they were not at all confident. On that question, Republicans expressed more concern: About one-third said they were not very or not confident at all that their vote would be counted.
Read the story on VTDigger here: Vermonters confident their vote will be counted but fear election interference and political violence, poll finds.