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A University of Akron Bliss Institute poll released Thursday found Donald Trump running ahead of Kamala Harris in Ohio by seven points, and U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown holding a slight advantage against his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.
The findings are part of the school’s 2024 Buckeye Poll conducted from Sept. 12 to Oct. 24. The survey included 1,241 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
Digging into the details, pollsters noted the wide gender gap many expect to see in the presidential contest nationally didn’t really show up at the state level. They even note Trump holds a nominal 1-point lead among women, although that’s well within the margin of error and 3% remain undecided.
The poll found independents in Ohio lean toward Trump in the presidential race, but almost a quarter of that group is still undecided. In the Senate race a third of independents still hadn’t made up their mind.
The survey also sheds light on stark divides in voters’ vision of the country. Partisans on both sides are far apart on issues like economic policy, immigration, abortion, and trans rights.
Presidential race
The Buckeye Poll found 51% of respondents support Donald Trump compared with 44% backing Kamala Harris. Those results include respondents leaning toward a particular candidate — 4% in Trump’s case and 6% for Harris, while another 5% of voters were backing a third party or remained undecided. Trump’s seven-point advantage is beyond the poll’s margin of error, and roughly in line with his actual performance in Ohio in 2016 and 2020, which he won by eight points each time.
“We’re not surprised at all by the numbers in the presidential race showing Donald trump with a healthy lead over Harris at seven points,” Bliss Institute director and political scientist Cherie Stachan said.
The poll also broke down respondents’ partisanship on a spectrum running from ‘strong’ to ‘lean’-ing for both parties with independents in the middle. Among voters who identified as independents, 39% are backing Trump as compared to 24% supporting Harris. Another 23% said they were backing neither.
U.S. Senate race
Strachan described the contest between Brown and Moreno as a “margin of error race.” The Buckeye Poll’s topline result had Brown leading Moreno 46% to 44% — neck and neck given the poll’s margin for error.
“The one thing that is interesting about the Senate race,” she said, “is that you do have, still, at least in this poll, enough people willing to split their ticket and support the incumbent senator for whatever reason to make it a margin of error race.”
Based on the overlaps they saw in the poll, Brown earned about three points from respondents who support Trump, but nevertheless plan to vote for the Democratic senator.
It’s notable, Strachan said, that “Trump’s endorsement has not pushed that challenger over the edge — Moreno has not solidified all of the Republicans despite the Trump endorsement.”
That shows up a bit in the quality of their responses in the Senate race. Voters’ preferences were a bit squishier, with significantly more ‘lean’ voters than in the presidential race. Brown got strong support from 37% of respondents with another 9% leaning his way. But for Moreno, 30% of respondents said they’re strong supporters, and 14% said they’re only leaning his way.
“I think that’s just another signal that he may have done some things that may have not been as successful in persuading people that he’s a good candidate,” Strachan said, “or that he’s a candidate that people feel comfortable supporting.”
As an anecdotal example, she pointed to television ads. Although Moreno and outside groups supporting him have spent heavily attacking Brown, they’ve spent substantially less promoting Moreno — a relative newcomer politically. According to FEC data, independent groups have plowed more than $114 million into attacking Brown, but less than $66 million supporting Moreno.
Polarization
The Buckeye Poll found Republicans and Democrats sharply divided on several major policy issues. On abortion, immigration, and trans-rights the parties are mirror images of one another in terms of support or opposition.
Strachan noted those cleavages have become so pronounced and widespread in recent years that political scientists describe the phenomenon as negative partisanship: “I dislike the other side more than maybe I like my own,” Strachan described. “The animosity toward the other side is driving us to stay in our partisan silos more than liking our own.”
That’s part of what makes Brown’s continued appeal across party lines significant, even if that appeal has put him in a statistical tie.
“In American politics writ large, it’s becoming increasingly harder to pull off what Brown is doing and getting those voters to split their ticket.”
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