Mon. Nov 25th, 2024

Democrat Jonathan Nez (left) and Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane (right) are vying to represent Congressional District 2. Photos by Shondiin Silversmith/Arizona Mirror and Gage Skidmore/Flickr via CC BY-SA 2.0

With the election only days away, voters will decide who will represent Arizona’s largest congressional district. 

The Second Congressional District stretches from south of Phoenix to the borders of New Mexico in the east and Utah in the north, encompassing much of eastern and northern Arizona. 

The current district, which was redrawn in 2021 during the once-a-decade redistricting process, includes heavily GOP Yavapai County, and Republicans have a strong registration advantage as a result. The redrawn district gave the GOP a seven-point edge, a stark difference from the nearly evenly split district it replaced.

The two candidates squaring off to represent the district are incumbent Republican Rep. Eli Crane and Democrat Jonathan Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation.

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Congressional District 2 covers about 60% of Arizona, and tribal land makes up a large portion of that district. The district includes 14 tribes in northern, eastern, and central Arizona, and those tribal members make up about 20% of the district’s total population.

Because the district leans heavily Republican, most expect Crane to win the district. However, a poll commissioned by Inside Elections in early October found the candidates tied at 42%. Jacob Rubashkin, the deputy editor of the election news and analysis firm, wrote that it should be considered a possible “sleeper” contest.  

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission calls CD2 a competitive district, but veteran political consultant Chuck Coughlin said that label is not based on voting data and history.  

“It’s a Republican district, made so more so after the last redistricting,” Coughlin said, highlighting how Republicans have an advantage in voter registration and participation in CD2. Voter registration is over 5% Republican, and participation is nearly 12 points, he said.

“Any type of idea that it could be a competitive district is not true,” Coughlin said. Even though there have been polls to suggest that 

So far, GOP voters in the district have far outpaced Democrats in casting early ballots. According to early ballot return data collected by Ascend Digital Analytics, Republicans account for almost 48% of the ballots already cast in the district, compared to barely 30% from Democratic voters. Another 22% are from unaffiliated voters.

In 2022, Crane defeated three-term incumbent Tom O’Halleran, a Democrat, turning Arizona’s largest congressional district red. Crane won almost 54% of the vote.

Crane, 43, is from Tucson and lives in Oro Valley, outside the district. He served in the U.S. Navy for 13 years, where he joined the SEAL team, and operated a small business called Bottle Breacher until he sold it in 2022. He is a member of the Homeland Security, Veteran Affairs, and Small Business Committees as well as the House Freedom Caucus, Western Caucus, and Copper Caucus.

Nez, 49, is from Shonto, Arizona, on the Navajo Nation, and lives in Flagstaff. He has 18 years of public service experience, first as a Shonto Chapter House vice president, then as a Navajo Nation Council delegate and most recently as the Navajo Nation president, a role he held from 2019 until 2023. He holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and a masters in public administration from Northern Arizona University. 

Both candidates have talked about their views on critical issues impacting Arizona, such as infrastructure, water resources, reproductive rights and immigration.

Eli Crane

During his first term in Congress, Crane, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, sponsored 15 bills that mainly focused on veterans, public lands, natural resources and immigration issues. Only two bills passed the House, but none have been signed into law.

The first-term Republican has made his presence known in Congress, especially after being one of the six Republicans to vote out House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. He’s taken a hard stance against reproductive rights as the co-sponsor of “The Life At Conception Act,” which would ban abortions with no exceptions as well as ban women’s access to birth control and IVF. 

Crane has been endorsed by Donald Trump, and has voiced his support for Trump multiple times, including speaking at a recent Trump rally in Tempe, where he called on Republican voters to fight. 

“I throw my full support behind Donald J. Trump because I’ve never seen somebody fight as hard as this guy fights,” Crane said of Trump before listing off how Trump withstood an impeachment, conviction on felony charges and assassination attempts.

Crane did not respond to multiple interview requests from the Arizona Mirror, but he has expressed his opinions about his opponent in the CD2 race on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter.

“A majority of #AZ02 stands with President Trump. They want lower inflation, a secure border and fewer wars,” Crane wrote in a post on X. “Yet my liberal opponent rejects the will of rural Arizona and stands with Kamala Harris. A vote for Jonathan Nez is a vote for more inflation and more open borders.”

Jonathan Nez

Nez said he understood that vying for a seat in a GOP-leaning district would be challenging, but he thinks his background and experience as a public servant has been able to connect with voters across the board. 

“This race is about the needs of the voters and the constituents,” he told the Mirror. “It’s about this country and the direction our country is going is concerning, not only for me but for all Americans.” 

“Democracy is on the line here, and we need to protect our democracy,” Nez said, adding that the reason he chose to run for office was the divisiveness of the U.S. House.

Nez said Crane, who he said was “handpicked” by Trump, is part of that divide occurring in D.C. 

“People want a representative to advocate on the issues that are important to them,” he added. If elected, Nez would be the first Native American from Arizona to hold a seat in Congress. 

Nez said he grew up in rural Arizona on a ranch, where he herded cattle and cared for sheep and goats, and he knows what it is like to live without running water or electricity. Most of all, he said, he grew up in a very conservative home. 

“My parents were Republican,” Nez said, and he was brought up with a “bootstrap mentality” of being self-reliant and self-sufficient. 

“We have to have a congressional leader who works with the state, county and local leaders,” Nez said. Part of the reason Crane doesn’t do that, Nez said, is because he does not live in the district and isn’t connected to its people.

As he has campaigned across the sprawling district, Nez said he identified “universal” concerns that impact communities on and off tribal land, such as water access, economic and infrastructure development and access to affordable health care, housing and childcare. 

“I think that people in this district are tired of having someone disrespect them in Congress when someone should be bringing home resources back into the community,” Nez said.

When it comes to supporting infrastructure development within Arizona’s Second Congressional District, Nez said his experience as a tribal leader will help him get results because he understands the regulations, policies, and laws that hinder economic and community development in rural areas. 

“When I was president, I was able to bring in over $4 billion to the Navajo Nation for water, electricity, broadband (and) telecommunication infrastructure,” Nez said. “I have a history of getting things done, and I will fight the same way I fought for the Navajo people in Congress, but on a much larger scale with a different constituency.”

One of the most significant topics highlighted in this election is abortion access. Nez said that as a person of faith, he does not personally believe in abortion, but he does recognize that the decision is up to the individual.

He said that, as a Native American, he recognizes sovereignty, and the concept of sovereignty is the ability to govern oneself. When it is connected to an individual, Nez said that is “inherent sovereignty,” which means one’s ability to make their own decisions.

“I truly believe that this decision should not be made by elected officials,” he said.

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