Sun. Nov 24th, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris, Democratic presidential hopeful (left) and former President Donald Trump, who is the Republican nominee. (Jonathan Ernst/Scott Olson/Getty Images)

In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 10-point lead over former President Donald Trump (51%-41%) in Virginia, according to a new poll released Friday by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Independent Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver both poll at 2%, and Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, takes 1% of the vote. 

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao, a retired U.S. Navy captain, with 51-40%, the poll found.

Friday’s survey marks a significant expansion of Harris’ advantage compared to a previous Roanoke College poll from Aug. 20, when the Democratic nominee edged her Republican opponent by just three points (47-44%) in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia. Kaine’s 11-point lead over Cao lead remains unchanged. 

The new poll isn’t good news for the Trump campaign, which is set to hold a high-stakes rally

Saturday at the Civic Center in Salem, where the Republican nominee plans to make his case to Virginians for the last time before Tuesday’s election.

In recent weeks, some leading Republicans have claimed that because of a fired up base and a tightening of the poll numbers, Virginia could be in play for Trump, who lost in the commonwealth in both 2016 and 2020. 

But according to Friday’s survey, only 2% of likely voters say they are still undecided four days before the election, and another 2% say they will vote for someone other than the five candidates on the ballot. Just less than half (47%) say they are almost certain to vote, while 40% report they have already voted. Almost one-fourth (24%) still plan to vote prior to Election Day. 

“Kamala Harris has increased the slim lead she held in the August Roanoke College Poll,” said Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Roanoke College. 

“She is claiming 95% of Democrats and leads 49%-36% among independents. Trump is supported by 90% of Republicans, but that might not be enough for him to win in Virginia.”  

With so few undecided voters, it’s a “tough uphill climb for Trump,” Wilson said. “Democrats continue to take advantage of early voting. Republicans are catching up, but they need massive turnout on Election Day.” 

The poll also found that a large majority (85%) of those who have not yet voted are very certain of their vote choice, and another 9% are somewhat certain. Two-thirds (66%) said they are very enthusiastic about voting, and another 17% are somewhat enthusiastic. 

The economy was named as the most important issue by 43% of respondents. Abortion (20%) and immigration (12%) were cited as most important more frequently than foreign affairs (8%) and crime (3%). 

 The survey further says that likely voters trust Harris to do a better job on abortion (57%, compared to 36% for Trump), but the candidates are viewed about equally on other issues (tied at 48% on immigration; Harris favored 49-45% on both crime and foreign policy; and Trump seen as doing a better job on the economy 49%-46%).    

Asked if the candidate understands and cares about people like them, only 37% think that Trump understands and cares compared to 46% for Harris. Respondents are closely divided regarding the impact of the federal government, with 44% thinking the government makes their life worse and 40% thinking it makes their life better.

The results of the Roanoke College poll are consistent with an Oct. 7 poll by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University that had Harris leading Trump by 11 points (52-41%) among Virginia likely voters. The survey found that 4% of voters remained undecided four weeks before the election, while 3% said they will vote for someone else.

For its survey, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 851 likely registered voters in Virginia between Oct. 25 and Oct. 29, 2024.The survey has a margin of error of 4.6%. 

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