The Washington state Capitol building, Feb. 19, 2024. (Bill Lucia/Washington State Standard)
The Washington state Legislature will get a personnel makeover in next week’s election as a result of retirements, departures and redistricting.
Nine state senators and 11 representatives aren’t returning. Seven House members are running for seats in the Senate. And all three legislative positions will be filled in the redrawn 14th Legislative District in the Yakima Valley region.
Electoral opportunities created by the turnover have Democrats looking to Tuesday with confidence that they will grow their majorities — now 58-40 in the House and 29-20 in the Senate.
If they can get to a supermajority of two-thirds of seats in both chambers, it would allow them to override any Republican objections to sending voters proposals for long-sought changes to the state Constitution, such as lowering the threshold to pass school bonds and guaranteeing access to abortion.
“It’s my job to try,” House Majority Leader Monica Stonier, D-Vancouver, said earlier this year. “We’re going to give it our best shot.”
Republican legislative leaders, on the other hand, have had to focus on defending vulnerable incumbents and keeping seats of departing members in GOP control.
Compounding the challenge was this year’s primary in which a handful of conservative GOP candidates advanced by beating more moderate Republicans backed by the leaders or the caucuses of the Senate and House Republicans.
Here are seven contests where seats might flip.
Tension in the 10th
Ron Muzzall spent a half-million dollars to win a state Senate seat in 2020. The Oak Harbor Republican is spending twice as much to keep it as Democrats pull out the stops to unseat him.
His duel with Democrat Janet St. Clair in the 10th Legislative District is the most expensive legislative contest this cycle. Candidates and outside forces have collectively expended nearly $3.5 million to sway voters in a northwest Washington district encompassing all of Island County and parts of Snohomish and Skagit counties.
This is one of the state’s few swing districts in which voters routinely elect members of both parties to represent them in Olympia. Muzzall’s current seatmates in the House are Democrats – Dave Paul and Clyde Shavers – who had narrow wins in 2022.
Muzzall, appointed in 2019, won by fewer than 2,000 votes. The contest with St. Clair, an Island County commissioner, could be as close. Democrats think Muzzall is vulnerable in a year where abortion is a major issue and the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, is unpopular in many parts of the district.
One political committee, the New Direction PAC, has been hammering the gregarious incumbent and agriculturalist all year. As of Wednesday, this alliance of Democratic and Republican groups and statewide labor organizations had spent $750,000 trying to unseat him.
Washington Wins sponsored by The Leadership Council, led by Senate Minority Leader John Braun, R-Centralia, and Sound Jobs, a political committee of business interests, have spent $600,000 in support of Muzzall.
Blank slate
A federal judge settled a legal battle over the electoral power of Latino voters in the Yakima Valley earlier this year and, in the process, reshaped Washington’s political landscape.
The redistricting plan approved by U.S. District Court Judge Robert Lasnik redrew the 14th Legislative District in a way that shifted it from reliably Republican to highly favorable for Democrats based on past presidential elections.
Democrats and their allies are looking to capitalize. The state senate race between Curtis King, the veteran Republican legislator, and Maria Beltran, a rising Democrat star, is a prime target.
King, of Yakima, has served in the senate since 2007, and got drawn out of his district by the judge. He moved into the new one fully aware of the political risks. “I felt like what was being done here to us was not correct and the only way to respond in a positive way was to move and run as an incumbent,” he said earlier this year.
Beltran, also of Yakima, launched her bid shortly before Judge Lasnik approved the final maps. She’s a former board member and president of OneAmerica, which works to empower immigrants and refugees in Washington, and did a stint working for the House Democratic Campaign Committee.
Though she started out with far less name identification among voters, Beltran has matched King in fundraising while benefiting from greater outside financial support. The New Direction committee has spent $750,000 promoting Beltran this year and less than $100,000 blasting King.
Protecting a red zone
With Republican state Sens. Ann Rivers of La Center and Lynda Wilson of Vancouver retiring, their legislative districts in southwest Washington became electoral battlegrounds.
In the 18th District, Republican Brad Benton and Democrat Adrian Cortes are engaged in a fierce contest to succeed Rivers, who is leaving after a dozen years in the seat. This is a Republican-leaning district. But Democrats are quietly optimistic because Benton wasn’t the first choice of Senate GOP leaders, a signal there’s concern he’s too conservative for voters.
In the primary, Benton, the son of former state lawmaker Don Benton, beat state Rep. Greg Cheney, who had the endorsement of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. As of Wednesday, the political arm of the Senate Republican Caucus had sent Benton just $10,000 for his general election campaign and focused its energies on reducing support for Cortes.
The Braun-led Leadership Council and a separate pro-business political committee have directed $500,000 into commercials and mailers hammering Cortes. There’s been about half as much spent by pro-Democrat forces against Benton.
Meanwhile, a little south and east, Wilson’s retirement from the 17th District could possibly flip in Democrats’ favor.
Republican Rep. Paul Harris threw his hat into the ring along with Democrat Marla Keethler, mayor of White Salmon. When the dust settled in the primary, Harris finished just 643 votes ahead of Keethler.
It’s proving to be an expensive race with $2.5 million spent so far from donations and outside spending.
Harris has spent $455,000 thanks in part to big donations from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee and the House Republican Organizational Committee. Harris also has significant outside financial support from groups like National Association of Realtors and the Building Industry of Association of Clark County.
Keethler has spent $404,000 with donations from the House and Senate Democratic Campaign Committees and the Washington State Democratic Central Committee. Keethler also has outside funding help from Southwest Washington Priorities, a group funded in part by Democratic groups.
If Keethler wins, it would be a new seat for Democrats, who currently hold a 29-20 majority.
Will Jesse Young ride again?
In Pierce County, Republican Jesse Young is trying to return to Olympia where he served as a state representative before losing to Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall in 2022. His comeback bid in the 26th Legislative District has been quite the drama.
There’s a vacancy because Republican Rep. Spencer Hutchins didn’t run again. Young, an outspoken conservative backed by the Pierce County Republican Party, advanced in the primary by beating a moderate Republican, Jim Henderson, endorsed by Hutchins and Republican Rep. Michelle Caldier, the district’s incumbent state legislator.
Young and Democrat Adison Richards are competing for the seat in Tuesday’s election. It will be close. Richards garnered 49.6% of the vote in the primary while the two Republicans combined for 50.3%.
Notably, Fix Washington, a political committee steered by House Minority Leader Drew Stokesbary, R-Auburn, worked against Young in the primary. But he won and the committee is in his corner now shelling out around $70,000 on supportive mailers and ads.
Meanwhile, Democrats see a pick-up opportunity and New Direction – who else – had spent $625,000 as of Wednesday knocking the former Republican lawmaker.
Border battle
House races in the 42nd District in Whatcom County are proving to be costly for Democrats.
The district, which includes Bellingham and North Cascades National Park, is more purple than blue but has been leaning more Democratic in recent years.
Reps. Alicia Rule and Joe Timmons are both running for reelection having narrowly won their seats previously. Rule clinched 51.1% of the vote in 2020 and 51.7% in 2022. Timmons won his first election in 2022 with 51.3%.
Democrats are spending big to keep them in those seats.
So far this year, Rule has brought in $434,000, namely from local and state Democratic campaign committees. That cash has made her one of the highest-funded legislative candidates this election cycle.
Timmons also has significant financial support, having raised almost $404,000, mostly from Democratic party committees.
Their Republican opponents, however, don’t appear to be raking in as much cash.
Raymond Pelletti, Rule’s opponent, has raised about $20,000. His biggest donors are the House Republican Organization Committee and the Whatcom County Republican Party. Kamal Bhachu, who’s running against Timmons, has raised $128,700 with big donations from the House Republican Organization Committee.
If the primary results are any indication, the incumbents are well-positioned to return to Olympia.
In August, Rule came away with 46.6% of the vote. If she gains the votes from the third-place Democrat in the race who received 7%, Rule could sail through to a third term.
Timmons may have a tougher route, though he still finished with 52.7% of the vote, compared to Bhachu’s 47.1%.