Thu. Oct 31st, 2024

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Early voting has begun and election watchers are paying close attention to what those numbers mean for the outcome of the Nov. 5 election. Yet, it is late deciding voters who will ultimately determine who wins the Presidency, the House, and the Senate. While it is hard to believe that there are still some who have not made up their mind who they are voting for, these individuals do exist. Early voters tend to be among the most partisan, while late deciders tend to be among the least informed and least partisan among us. Consequently, it is very important to understand who these people are and what helps them come to a decision.  

An examination of Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is instructive. The race is the most costly in the country, with over $400 million spent and rising. It is considered to be essential for Democrats to win if they are to maintain control of the Senate.

The race between incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno appears to be very close. Drawing from a poll of likely Ohio voters we recently conducted, we find a significant number of respondents who have yet to decide who they will ultimately support (7%). We find Brown up 47% to Moreno’s 45%. This small number of undecideds translates to more than 400,000 voters if Ohio’s turnout matches 2020 levels.   

So who exactly are these people? In our poll, 79% are women, 78% are white, more than two-thirds range from having some college education to having a post-graduate degree, and 51% are independents. Fifty-two percent say they are moderate and 1 in 5 describe themselves as conservative. Undecided voters are more likely to be Republicans than Democrats (20% to 7%)

We also find that those who say they voted for Trump in 2020 are almost twice as likely to be an undecided voter than those who said they voted for Biden in 2020 (43% to 23%). We also find they are far less active in politics than their more committed counterparts, reporting little engagement in politics and demonstrating far less interest in political campaigns. 

These findings track closely to other studies. Late deciding voters tend to be less partisan, less ideological, and less likely to have a college degree. They tend to be infrequent voters and generally do not follow politics as closely as more committed voters. It is likely that most of these undecided voters are just now beginning to pay attention to the campaign, making whatever information they come into contact with incredibly powerful in shaping how they see the race. 

In the Ohio Senate contest, both campaigns are keenly aware of these characteristics and are tailoring their messaging to them. Moreno attacks Brown for having an absolute extremist on this issue of abortion,” a message intended for moderates. Aiming to attract female voters, Moreno adds, “I have two daughters, and the most influential person in my life is my mother. Somebody’s going to always advocate for women and make sure that women are protected…” This message appears tailored to persuading undecided female voters. 

Moreno, however, committed what could prove to be a damaging gaffe when video of him surfaced saying, “Sadly, by the way, there’s a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women that are like, ‘Listen, abortion is it. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anybody else.’ OK. It’s a little crazy, by the way, but — especially for women who are like past 50, I’m thinking to myself, ‘I don’t think that’s an issue for you.’” Not surprisingly, the comments have been used by Brown supporters to signal Moreno as an extremist on women’s issues.    

For his part, Brown has stayed on his message promoting the “dignity of work,” and making clear that he has opposed trade agreements negotiated by presidents from both parties. These messages are intended to resonate with moderate and independent voters — who are also among those most likely to be late deciders. Further promoting his moderate and bipartisan bona fides, Brown’s campaign has run a commercial featuring Republican Wood County Sheriff Mark Wasylyshyn. In the ad, Wasylyshyn says that he has worked with Brown to stem the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., and that the two of them visited the southern border together.   

The lessons on messaging we observe here translate well to those late deciding voters the presidential campaigns are trying to capture in swing states. Messaging to these voters is essential in moving these late deciders to the Trump or Harris camps. It was late deciders who pushed Trump over the finish line in 2016 as they clearly broke his way in the final days of the election. Given how close the race is today, reaching these voters and persuading them is a key priority for both campaigns. It is these voters who will ultimately determine the outcome of many races across the country on Nov. 5.

Robert Alexander is a professor of political science and Founding Director of the Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network. He is the author of Representation and the Electoral College, published by Oxford University Press.

David J. Jackson is Professor of Political Science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio.  His major research interest is the relationship between politics and culture.  He is the author of the book, “Entertainment and Politics: The Influence of Pop Culture on Young Adult Political Socialization,” as well as articles in such journals as Political Research QuarterlyPolish American StudiesInternational Journal of Press/Politics, and Journal of Political Marketing.

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