In summary
Proposition 33 on local rent control and the related Proposition 34 are attracting the most campaign cash by far of the 10 ballot measures. But the amount pales to what was spent on dueling sports betting measures in 2022.
In 2022, two dueling sports betting propositions dominated fundraising for California’s ballot measures.
This year, it’s two propositions related to local rent control.
Of the more than $350 million raised so far by the campaigns supporting and opposing the 10 measures on the November ballot, more than half is going to Proposition 33, which would give cities more power to impose rent limits, and Prop. 34, which targets a nonprofit that is sponsoring Prop. 33 and has put previous rent control measures on the ballot.
But this year’s total is roughly only half of the nearly $700 million that was spent on ballot measures in 2022, including more than $571 million for and against the two competing sports gambling propositions by tribes and online gambling companies. Voters rejected both Prop. 26 and Prop. 27, overwhelmingly.
Several other potential measures that could have generated a lot of spending — including an oil industry-environmental war over oil drilling and a business-labor battle over employer liability — were negotiated off the ballot in June. And the state Supreme Court kicked off the ballot what would have been an expensive contest on a sweeping tax measure.
As Election Day on Nov. 5 nears, the money is flowing even faster. According to a CalMatters analysis, between Oct. 21 and Friday (the last day for which there is data), more than $21 million was contributed to the campaigns contesting the 10 statewide measures. Most was contributed by the California Apartment Association, which invested $11 million in opposing Prop. 33 and $3.1 million to support the Prop. 34 campaign. That brings the association’s total to at least $131 million this election cycle.
On the other side, the AIDS Healthcare Foundation contributed more than $24 million since the start of October in support of Prop. 33 and against Prop. 34, though just $560 in the last week. The foundation’s donations total nearly $65 million this election.
In fact, the Apartment Association and Healthcare Foundation are the two largest single contributors to proposition campaigns this election, accounting for more than half of all contributions related to ballot measures. The third largest contributor is the California Association of Realtors, which gave a relatively paltry $19 million to fight Prop. 33.
In the most recent polling, Prop. 33 has the support of only 42% of likely voters, with 54% opposed, while Prop. 34 has 47% support, with 49% opposed.