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Welcome to The Topline, a weekly roundup of the big numbers driving the Minnesota news cycle, as well as the smaller ones that you might have missed. This week: How climate change is already affecting different regions of the state; racial bias in traffic stops versus traffic cameras; the data on reform prosecutors’ records; and the Republican Senate candidate’s penchant for name-calling.
The fastest-warming region of the state
Northwest Minnesota has warmed by an astonishing 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit, or more than 3 degrees Celsius, over the past century, according to new estimates from the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership.
The group has released data on both climate impacts so far, as well as projected changes in the future.
Warming has been most intense so far in the northwest part of the state, with changes concentrated in the cold weather months. Average winter lows have increased by 7.6 degrees Fahrenheit, for instance.
Warming near the Twin Cities area has been a more modest 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, although another several degrees of warming are expected by mid-century. Most of the state can expect considerable increases in precipitation as well.
There is no refuge from a changing climate.
Traffic cams vs cops
Minnesota is taking halting steps toward following many other states and using automated cameras to ticket speeders and red light runners. While some advocates have been wary on civil liberties and racial justice grounds, new research published in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences has some reassuring findings: Automated cameras are far more racially equitable in their issuance of tickets than flesh-and-blood police officers conducting traffic stops.
“The citation rate measured by cameras better matches the racial composition of road users on the links with cameras than do stops by police officers,” the study concludes. The equity gap between cameras and cops is especially large in areas where Black drivers are a minority.
Speed cameras aren’t perfect. One issue, for instance, is that authorities may choose to disproportionately place them in neighborhoods with high proportions of non-white drivers.
No relationship between progressive prosecution practices and crime
A study from the Brennan Center for Justice finds that contrary to many media narratives that have sprung up in recent years, there is virtually no relationship between prosecutorial leniency and crime rates.
Prosecutors have broad discretion in determining what types of criminal charges and sentences to pursue. In several cities, reform-minded prosecutors have won election on an explicit platform of reducing incarceration and emphasizing racial inequity in the justice system.
The Brennan Center analysis finds cities with and without reform-oriented prosecutors saw similar trends in violent and property crime between January of 2018 and October of last year.
“Prosecutors have limited effect on crime rates, but their policies can mitigate or increase some of the harms caused by decades of over-prosecution,” the study concludes.
Royce White made it through the Senate debate without calling anyone a ‘cuck’
A Reformer analysis of Twitter data finds that Minnesota Republican Senate candidate Royce White called someone a “cuck” on Twitter more than 300 times in the past 12 months.
He was, however, able to make it through the entirety of this weekend’s debate with Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar without using the term.
In the Trump era “cuck” has been embraced by far-right misogynists, owing to its racial and sexual undertones. White, a conspiracist podcaster who has dabbled in antisemitism, has embraced the term as well, using it as a catchall reply to people who upset him on social media.
Throughout the past year it’s been a consistent feature of his online vocabulary, with one notable exception: He stopped using it between March and May of this year, in the run-up to the Minnesota Republican Party’s Senate nomination.
White called dozens of different people “cucks” over the past 30 days, including film director Rob Reiner, Republican strategist Rick Wilson, Last Week Tonight host John Oliver, and former state Republican Rep. Pat Garofalo.
“My opponent says vulgar things nearly every single day, on his Twitter feed, on his podcast, every single day insulting people,” said Klobuchar at the debate this week. “That’s his job. That’s what he does. I think a senator is a different kind of job.”