Which CA ballot props are likely to pass?

With less than two weeks until Election Day, some of you may have already filled out your ballot and submitted your vote (way to go, you!). 

But for those who are still deciding and curious about what other California voters think about the statewide ballot measures, a new poll out Wednesday night from the Public Policy Institute of California sheds some light. Conducted earlier this month, the poll of 1,137 likely voters (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points) puts the 10 propositions into three buckets:

Four are way ahead:

Prop. 36: Opposed by Democratic leaders, the proposal to increase penalties for certain drug and theft crimes remains popular, with 73% in favor, including 67% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans.

Prop. 3: With 67% support, voters are primed to scrub the California constitution of language that bans same-sex marriage, especially since it has been legal in the state since 2013.

Prop. 4: 60% approve the bond issue, which would allow the state to borrow $10 billion for environmental and climate projects.

Prop. 35: 62% back the measure to ensure that a tax on health care plans is spent on low-income patients.

Three are up in the air:

Prop. 2: 52% would pass the other $10 billion bond issue, which would go toward repairing facilities at K-12 public schools and community colleges.

Prop. 5: 48% support lowering the voting threshold for local governments to borrow money to fund affordable housing and other projects.

Prop. 34: 47% back a proposal requiring certain health care providers to spend most of their revenue from a federal prescription drug discount program on patient care. Funded by landlord groups, the measure is viewed by opponents as targeting the AIDS Healthcare Foundation for pushing Prop. 33 (see below) and previous rent control measures.

And three are trailing:

Prop. 33: Support to give local governments more leeway to limit rent increases has dipped: 42%, compared to 51% in September.

Prop. 6: 41% support limiting forced labor as a form of punishment in state prisons, down from 46% in September.

Prop. 32: 44% support raising the hourly minimum wage from $16 to $18. That’s down from 50% support last month.

One reason why Prop. 32 isn’t faring better is that proponents aren’t doing much outreach, while opponents are leaning into a message that raising wages will lead to higher inflation, writes CalMatters Capitol reporter Jeanne Kuang. Supporters refute the argument, saying the measure will enable 2 million California workers to get raises amid a time when the cost of living is indeed high. Nonetheless, seizing on economic anxiety is a good tactic, said one supporter. Read more in Jeanne’s story.

Other poll findings:

U.S. Senate: Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is keeping his huge lead over Republican Steve Garvey: 63% to 37% among likely voters. No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006.

Newsom: Gov. Gavin Newsom’s job performance rating remains underwater: 52% of likely voters disapprove, while 47% approve. Republicans want to capitalize on his unpopularity.

The PPIC poll also found that while Vice President Kamala Harris is a shoo-in to win California, her support among likely voters is at 59% (it was 57% in a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey released earlier this month).

While polling isn’t always precise and the actual results all depend on which voters turn out, if Harris does end up at less than 60%, that would be the lowest for a Democrat in California since John Kerry won 54% of the vote in 2004. Joe Biden won 63.5% in 2020.

But the bigger question, of course, is who wins the Electoral College nationally. And with that comes the issue of whether we’ll have a repeat of 2020, when 147 Republicans in Congress — including seven representing California — refused to certify the electoral count.

As CalMatters’ politics reporter Yue Stella Yu and politics intern Jenna Peterson explain, only four out of 12 incumbent California Republicans in the U.S. House have pledged to certify the November election results. Of the three GOP challengers in California’s most competitive districts, two have also promised to uphold the results. And Republican Senate hopeful Garvey committed to upholding the results in February.

The refusal by most California Republicans in Congress to commit comes as former President Donald Trump and his allies sow doubt in the election. Strategists say Republicans are hesitant to openly speak about the issue if it risks losing votes of Trump supporters. 

Jon Fleischman, former executive director of the state GOP: “It puts Republicans in competitive districts in a difficult position. Of course they’re going to vote to certify the election results, but they don’t really want to inflame the conservative grassroots side either, because they need them for their Get Out the Vote.”

Read more about certifying the 2024 presidential election in Stella and Jenna’s story.

After passing a first-in-the-nation law in 2019 that allowed college athletes to cash in on their name, image and likeness, it appeared as if California positioned itself as a leader in empowering student athletes. 

But that doesn’t seem to be the case any longer, writes CalMatters community college reporter Adam Echelman.

A couple of bills that would have bolstered student athlete compensation failed this year, including one that would have required college sports teams to share profits with their athletes. Another, which Gov. Newsom vetoed, proposed mandating companies to report how much they pay student athletes. The three legislators who have prioritized this issue, including the two behind the 2019 law, are also leaving this year. 

It’s not clear if other California lawmakers will pick up the mantle, but the next wave of student sports legislation, if there is one, has lucrative implications: Though only a small number of student athletes in the U.S. actually profit off their name, image and likeness, they could earn about $1.7 billion this school year, according to one estimate.

Learn more about California’s waning influence on student athlete rights in Adam’s story.

CalMatters looked into California’s campaign finance watchdog and how lengthy investigations can rob voters of information on candidates. As a follow-up, data reporter Jeremia Kimelman and Stella explain how they collected and analyzed the data for the story and the challenges they faced. 

We’ve also added another tool to get more details on cases involving local officials. Try it out.