The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main super PAC connected to House GOP leadership, cut $600,000 in ad reservations that were meant to boost Republican George Logan in the final weeks of the race for Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District.
A spokeswoman for the Congressional Leadership Fund confirmed the group will no longer spend on television ads in the 5th District and instead will move that money to other states with offensive opportunities to flip seats in the U.S. House. CLF’s decision to pull the ad buy was first reported by Axios.
Super PACs and political groups typically make early ad reservations months ahead of the election to lock in better rates and stake out their target states and districts. Over time, those groups will add, shift or cut money as they get a clearer picture of what the electoral map looks like and how much money they can spend if resources allow. Super PACs can raise unlimited money and spend for or against a candidate but cannot coordinate directly with campaigns.
In the spring, CLF initially reserved $1.1 million in the Hartford media market. The group planned to move forward with $600,000 in TV ads but made the decision to redirect that money with a tight map and control of the U.S. House on the line. Republicans have a narrow majority that they are looking to protect on Nov. 5.
The CLF spokeswoman cited a tougher political environment where President Joe Biden carried Connecticut’s 5th District by 11 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Logan challenged Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes in 2022 when the race for governor, and not a presidential election, was at the top of the ticket.
The decision to pull money from the 5th District stands in stark contrast to two years ago. CLF was the biggest spender on behalf of Logan in 2022. The super PAC spent more than $4 million in that election cycle, according to the nonprofit OpenSecrets, which tracks campaign fundraising and spending. Logan lost to Hayes by less than 2,000 votes, which was her closest race since she first ran in 2018.
But this cycle, the GOP super PAC will not spend any money in the 5th District. Instead, the National Republican Congressional Committee is doing more of the heavy lifting this cycle and has run a few joint ads alongside Logan’s campaign. Americans for Prosperity Action, the super PAC affiliated with the group founded by conservative donors Charles and David Koch, has also spent close to half a million dollars for Logan on mailers and ads.
Scott McLean, a political science professor at Quinnipiac University, said the money for political advertising is only one component of the campaign. He argued that voter mobilization efforts are likely to have a larger effect on a district like Connecticut’s 5th.
“It’s hard to tell from just one thing. There are so many sources of money right now,” McLean said. “One of the things about that district is it isn’t really powered by ads. It’s really powered by get-out-the-vote.”
“I don’t think the name of the game is necessarily TV ads,” he added. “I think it’s more about mobilizing people.”
A recent independent poll from WTNH, Emerson College Polling and The Hill found Hayes narrowly leading Logan but within the poll’s 3.6% margin of error. The survey also found Harris with a slim lead over Trump in the 5th District. In statewide polling from The Connecticut Mirror, Harris leads Trump by a double-digit margin in Connecticut.
On the Democratic side, House Majority PAC released its first 5th District ad of the cycle this week. The group is the main super PAC linked to House Democratic leadership.
HMP had spent more than $2.5 million in the 2022 cycle to boost Hayes. But they are so far spending less than half of that amount in this year’s race. The Democratic super PAC went up with its first ad buy at nearly $800,000 that will run through Election Day, according to a spokeswoman from House Majority PAC.
“As Democrats continue to gain momentum, Republican extremists are flailing. HMP is confident that CT-05 will send Jahana Hayes back to Congress, and the House will flip blue in November,” HMP spokeswoman Alisha Heng said in a statement.
Similar to other Democratic ads, HMP’s spot also seeks to link Logan to Republicans in Congress, including the U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who have supported legislation that would significantly limit abortion rights nationally. Johnson and other members of House GOP leadership have visited the 5th District this year to help fundraise and campaign for Logan.
Logan has strongly pushed back against these ads, arguing they misrepresent his views on this issue. Since his first race for Congress in 2022, he has said he will not vote for a national ban on abortion and backs Connecticut’s own law. In 1990, Connecticut passed a law to protect the right to an abortion up until fetal viability — or around 24 weeks of pregnancy — mirroring the protections once covered under Roe v. Wade.
The ad also points to the former state senator’s comments in 2022 about federal legislation to codify Roe v. Wade into law. He said at the time he would not vote for such a bill and questioned whether Congress has the constitutional authority to do so. In a debate a few weeks ago, Logan said he would support such a bill, adding a similar caveat that “as long as it doesn’t undermine Connecticut’s abortion law and it’s constitutional.”
In response to CLF’s ad buy cancellation and HMP’s new spending, Logan highlighted the outside spending for his opponent in a district that Democrats easily carried in the last presidential election.
“Jahana Hayes has been a disappointment to the people of the 5th district since she took office, which is why she’s the only Democrat in the country, in a district Joe Biden won by 11%, that’s required millions of dollars in campaign support from Washington Democrats who are so desperate to keep this seat they will say and do anything to win. In the final days of the election we are confident we have the winning message and people in the district are ready for a change,” Logan said in a statement.
While CLF has pulled back on its advertising, the 5th District will still see plenty of campaign ads with both Logan and Hayes’ teams spending on TV and digital advertising. With only a few opportunities to engage with one another this cycle, the candidates have taken to the airwaves to try and define each other, which has led to pushback that they are mischaracterizing their positions on certain issues.
Logan’s campaign released its latest ad this week where he noted he came “so close” in his first race against Hayes two years ago. He also bemoaned the negative ads that “outright lie to scare you.” In addition to a number of positive and biographical spots, both campaigns and the groups supporting them have funded attack ads to question their opponent’s positions on abortion, immigration, fentanyl and law enforcement.
But with groups like CLF sitting out of the race, the outside spending in the rematch for the 5th District will likely fall short of the spending from 2022. The NRCC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have been the main power players in the race this cycle, along with the campaigns themselves. The two groups have spent a combined total of at least $1.5 million, according to OpenSecrets.
Connecticut’s 5th District has consistently been the most competitive federal race in the state for years. The district spans much of the western part of the state and includes suburbs west of Hartford, big cities like Waterbury and more rural communities in the northwest corner.
A Republican from Connecticut has not served in Congress in 15 years, but the party sees the race as one of its best chances to flip a seat in the state. The last Republican to serve in the 5th District was Nancy Johnson, who lost reelection in 2006 to Chris Murphy, who is now a U.S. senator.