Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey are vying for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat (Capital-Star composite from official/campaign photos)
With control of the U.S. Senate in the balance, on Monday the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which rates political races’ leanings, moved the contest between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and GOP challenger Dave McCormick into its dreaded “toss-up” column.
Essentially, Cook’s team now considers the race too close to call, based on the results of recent internal polling commissioned by both campaigns and spending on political ads. That’s not great news for Casey, who at one point held a double-digit lead in some external polls. Cook for most of the year has rated the race as “lean Democrat.” But for McCormick, who is making his second bid for a U.S. Senate seat in the Keystone State, it’s welcome news for a campaign that has been marred by faux pas and an ongoing battle to prove that he lives in Pennsylvania, not Connecticut.
“We always knew this race would be extremely expensive and competitive thanks to the out-of-state billionaires funding Connecticut hedge fund CEO David McCormick,” said Maddy McDaniel, a spokesperson for the Casey campaign. “Bob Casey is a bipartisan leader who understands Pennsylvanian values, and he will spend the last weeks until the election earning every vote across the Commonwealth.”
While Casey has a slight lead in both campaigns’ latest internal polls, according to Cook, it’s also within their margins of error. In an apparent attempt to woo split ticket voters, Casey’s campaign began running ads to highlight where he agreed with former President Donald Trump on Friday, which the Trump campaign derided as a “desperately trying to embrace” the GOP nominee.
Real Clear Politics’ polling averages show Casey still leading by two points, down from an early eight point lead. Poll trackers at FiveThirtyEight have Casey currently up by four points. Both sites average the results of polls taken over time, whereas Cook attributed their reclassification of the race largely to two recent internal polls.
“Dave McCormick is outworking Bob Casey every single day,” said Elizabeth Gregory, a spokesperson for McCormick. “It’s time for a change, and as a 7th-generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran, and PA job creator, Dave McCormick will bring new leadership and fresh ideas to the Senate when Pennsylvania elects him on November 5.”
Both campaigns have sent out fundraising emails urging supporters to donate in light of the new rating.
In a sign of how important Casey’s seat is to both parties, the Pennsylvania Senate race has drawn more outside spending than any contest this cycle, save the Presidential race and Ohio’s Senate election, seen as a must-win by both parties, according to money-in-politics tracker OpenSecrets. The majority of that spending, $109 million out of $181 million has gone to aiding McCormick. Unlike with traditional campaign donations, there is no limit to how much any individual can give to an outside spending group.
But it’s not all bad news for Casey. Recent campaign finance reports show the incumbent Democrat significantly outraised McCormick. Between early July and the end of September, Casey raised $16 million, more than doubling McCormick’s $7.8 million haul in the same period.
McCormick, a hedge fund manager, has put over $4 million of his own money into his campaign throughout the race.
Casey is seeking re-election for what would be his fourth term in office. The last Republican who won a Senate election in Pennsylvania was Pat Toomey in 2016.
Currently, Democrats have a narrow 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate, but that could change in the next election. Democrats are widely expected to lose in West Virginia where Sen. Joe Manchin, the last Democrat remaining in a statewide elected office, is not seeking reelection. Democratic Senators in Ohio and Montana are also running tight races. If either of them, or Casey, loses, it could tip the Senate in Republicans’ favor. If both parties win 50 seats, the tie breaking vote will go to the next Vice President, either Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democrat, or Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio).
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives. A handful of tight races, including in Pennsylvania, could decide control of that chamber as well.
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