Success in the 11th, 15th and 17th would give the Democrats 12 seats in the Senate, denying the GOP a supermajority for the first time since 2008 (Getty Images).
Democrats hoping to chip away at the GOP supermajority in the Missouri Senate got a big boost last week when its candidates in two swing districts won the endorsement of the state’s largest business advocacy group.
In a third hotly contested district, the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry chose not to weigh in at all.
The Missouri Chamber, an historically Republican-leaning organization, formally endorsed Democrat Robert Sauls in Senate District 11 and Joe Pereles in Senate District 15.
In a third race — for the 17th Senate District in Clay County — the chamber declined to endorse Republican Jerry Notle or Democrat Maggie Nurrenbern.
Of the 17 Senate races taking place this year across the state, the 11th, 15th and 17th are widely considered the most competitive.
Sauls, a Democrat from Independence, is taking on Republican Joe Nicola of Grain Valley for the seat vacated by former Democratic state Sen. John Rizzo.
Both Pereles and his GOP rival, David Gregory, are from Chesterfield. They’re vying for the seat being vacated by Republican state Sen. Andrew Koenig.
Nurrenbern, a state representative from Kansas City, and Notle, a former state lawmaker and presiding county commissioner, hope to replace former Democratic state Sen. Lauren Arthur.
In announcing its endorsements, the chamber pointed to “political dysfunction” that has derailed the Senate and “stalled key business priorities, harming Missouri employers and families.”
Factional infighting between Republican members of the Freedom Caucus and the Senate’s GOP leadership has derailed the chamber for the last four years.The bad blood came to a head during the 2024 legislative session, when members of the Freedom Caucus waged a 41-hour filibuster that nearly upended the state budget.
The 2024 legislative session was the least productive in living memory, surpassing even the COVID-shortened 2020 session in futility.
Nicola is widely expected to join the Freedom Caucus if he wins next month. Gregory is a trial attorney, a group that has bankrolled Missouri’s Freedom Caucus in recent years.
“Ultimately, the Missouri Chamber PAC chose to endorse Sauls and Pereles because we believe they are strong candidates and will work with the business community to move Missouri forward,” said Kara Corches, the chamber’s interim president and CEO.
In addition to its endorsement, the chamber’s PAC reported earlier this month spending $25,000 to support Pereles in the race.
Republicans currently hold 24 of the Senate’s 34 seats.
Democrats are expected to pick up one seat currently held by Republicans — the Boone County-based 19th District.
Success in the 11th, 15th and 17th would give the Democrats 12 seats in the Senate, denying the GOP a supermajority for the first time since 2008.
Sauls vs. Nicola
Senate District 11 in Jackson County includes eastern Kansas City and Independence. While held by a Democrat for the last few election cycles, former President Donald Trump carried the district in 2020 and 2016.
Nicola, a pastor and former Navy Seal, overcame a massive fundraising disadvantage to defeat state Rep. Aaron McMullin in the August GOP primary, spending roughly $100,000 this cycle compared to $500,000 for McMullin.
His last report, filed in September, shows only $15,000 cash on hand.
Sauls, an attorney and former prosecutor, was unopposed in the Democratic primary and reported $202,000 cash on hand in September. Since that report was filed, a political action committee supporting his candidacy — called Independence Leadership PAC — has received $130,000 in large contributions.
Sauls began airing television ads this week, spending $134,520 so far. Nicola has not purchased broadcast time.
Nicola brushed off the chamber’s endorsement, saying that he will be a “pro-business senator” who will “work to cut taxes, slash governmental red tape and let the free market do what it does best: promote entrepreneurship and create wealth.”
But he mostly chalks up the Missouri Chamber’s endorsement to his opposition to “vaccine mandates, China owning our farmland and taxpayer-funded DEI indoctrination.”
“I completely disagree with these positions,” he said, “and the fact that my opponent is endorsed by a group with these radical policies is telling and completely out of touch with my district.”
Pereles vs. Gregory
The 15th District includes a large portion of suburban St. Louis County, including Chesterfield and Ballwin. It has historically been a Republican stronghold, but has slowly trended towards Democrats in recent years.
Gregory, a former state legislator, won a three-way Republican primary in August, emerging with only $30,000 in his campaign committee and $4,000 in a PAC supporting him called Show-Me Growth PAC, according to disclosure reports filed last month.
Pereles, a retired Drury Hotel executive, was unopposed in the Democratic primary. His campaign reported $650,000 cash on hand last month, with a PAC supporting him — called Fearless PAC — receiving more than $400,000 in large donations since the primary.
Pereles is up on TV, spending $53,000 so far on ads hammering Gregory’s support of Missouri’s abortion ban and mocking his push to build a castle in Jefferson City for his family to live in if he were to win the Senate seat.
The Missouri Senate Campaign Committee, which supports GOP candidates, launched an ad this month trying to tie Pereles to U.S. Rep. Cori Bush and arguing that Pereles is soft on crime.
Nurrenbern vs. Nolte
The 17th District covers Clay County and was held by Republicans until 2018, when Arthur captured the seat in a special election and cruised to an easy re-election in 2022.
Both Nolte and Nurrenbern were unopposed in the August primary.
Nolte reported nearly $70,000 in his campaign account in a disclosure filed last month.
Nurrenbern reported $375,000 cash on hand as of last month in her campaign committee and another $200,000 in a PAC supporting her candidacy.
Since the primary, the pro-Nurrenbern PAC — called Northland Forward — has received around $200,000 in large contributions.
Nurrenbern’s campaign has spent $440,295 on TV ads, while Nolte is currently not on the air. Majority Forward, a PAC organized to support Democratic Senate candidates, has also spent $264,885 so far running a TV ad in the district.
The Independent’s Rudi Keller contributed to this story.