Abortion advocate Erin Bradley, Maryland first lady Dawn Moore and Sen. Ariana B. Kelly attend rally in support of “Right to Reproductive Freedom” referendum on Jan. 22, 2024. File photo by Bryan P. Sears.
Maryland voters are poised to enshrine the right to abortion access in the state constitution, with 69% of voters saying they will support it and just 21% opposed, according to a poll released Wednesday.
The abortion question has also “played a front and center role” in the contest for Senate, where the poll shows Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) leading Republican former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan by a margin of 48% to 39%. Six percent would support another candidate and 5% were undecided.
“It (abortion) is a big part of Alsobrooks’s messaging,” said Mileah Kromer, a pollster and director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, which produced the poll. “It feeds into the central part of this race, which is Alsobrooks against not just Larry Hogan, but Alsobrooks against a Republican majority in the Senate.”
Kromer, who has conducted polls in Maryland for more than a decade, said the results on Question 1 are consistent with previous polling on reproductive rights issues in the state.
“Polling over the last couple years in Maryland has suggested that Marylanders overwhelmingly support the right to choose,” she said. “It’s not surprising at all that Question 1 has this level of support.”
The UMBC Poll surveyed 1,003 Maryland adults, including 917 who said they were registered voters. The poll was conducted Sept. 23-28. It has an overall margin of error of 3.1%. The margin of error among registered voters is 3.2%.
The university released part one of the poll Tuesday, which covered views on taxes and the size of state government, economic conditions in the state, and Gov. Wes Moore’s job approval.
Likely voters weigh in on top issues
Of the 917 people who said they were registered to vote in Maryland, 86% said they are “absolutely certain to vote” in the November general election. Another 8% said they were “very likely to vote.” Of the “certain” or “very likely” voters, 69% said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for president, U.S. Senate, while 19% were somewhat enthusiastic.
Voting on Election Day remains popular, with 43% saying they will cast a ballot on Nov. 5. Another 28% said they would vote in person during the state’s early voting period, and 27% said they would return their ballot by mail or a drop box.
The poll also asked likely voters which issues would be “major or critical” in determining their vote, and found:
Cost of everyday goods and services, 64%
Crime and public safety, 63%
Abortion, 57%
Taxes and government spending, 57%
Health care, 57%
Gun control, 56%
Economic development and jobs, 54%
Immigration, 51%
Affordability and access to housing, 50%
Environmental issues, 39%
Transportation and infrastructure, 33%
For Hogan, ‘the problem is the Republican Party’
In the Senate race, 78% of those who have made a choice said they are set on that choice, but 20% could still change their mind.
Both Alsobrooks and Hogan are viewed favorably by voters.
Hogan, who maintained high approval numbers over his eight years in office, is viewed favorably by 53% of those polled, including 38% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans and 66% of independent voters. Forty-two percent held an unfavorable opinion of the former governor.
Then-Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) at an event in 2022, before they became rivals for the Senate. File photo by Bruce DePuyt.
“Hogan has taken a little bit of a hit,” Kromer said. “His favorability rating is in the 50s now. In previous years we have seen it as high as 70-something percent approval rating. Still, at 55% his favorables are better than his unfavorables.
“He’s still a popular political figure,” Kromer said. “The problem honestly isn’t Hogan. The problem is the Republican Party. Democrats know that.”
More than 80% of those who said they would vote for Hogan cited positive views of him, the Republican Party or GOP policies. Another 9% cited negative views toward Alsobrooks or the Democratic Party.
Kromer said Alsobrooks, and campaigning from outside groups supporting her, “has effectively framed this race as Angela Alsobrooks versus a Republican Senate majority. That’s a hard thing for Hogan to message around. If you look back at part one of the poll, the Republican Party is just not that popular in Maryland.”
Alsobrooks enjoyed a 49% favorability rating, compared to 32% unfavorable opinion. Three-in-four Democrats held favorable opinions of Alsobrooks, along with 10% of Republicans and 35% of independents.
Among Alsobrooks supporters, 46% are basing their vote on positive views of her, the Democratic Party or its policies. Another 26% support Democratic control of the Senate, while 12% said they held negative views of Hogan or the Republican Party. Seven percent cited their views on reproductive rights and abortion as reasons for to back Alsobrooks.
Kromer said Democrats have been effective at presenting a message that combats Hogan’s bipartisan popularity in the state.
“I think the strategy has really been telling the folks, Democrats that voted for Hogan maybe twice, that it’s OK to like him. You can like this Republican governor. You can like everything he did during his time in office,” she said. “But when it comes down to it, he’s not going to be the governor. He’ll be a senator, and they have that ad that has Hogan in his own words saying he’s going to caucus with Republicans.”
Still, Kromer said the race is not yet locked in.
“I don’t think you should ever count out a Republican who has run and won statewide twice and continues to be viewed more favorably than unfavorably. I would never count that person out,” she said. “That being said, there aren’t a lot of people left out there who don’t know Larry Hogan.”
Even so, Kromer said Hogan has more of a challenge than Alsobrooks.
“It was always going to be a long shot,” she said. “I think they always anticipated this happening, but time is running out to change people’s minds. It’s all about, can Larry Hogan get 25%, 30% of Democrats? That’s the fundamental question because they are going to be the voters that matter.”
Harris leads Trump
There’s little drama in the presidential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and Republican former President Donald Trump. If the election were held today, 57% of likely voters in the poll said they would vote for Harris to 35% for Trump and 3% for another candidate. Just 5% were undecided.
Harris’ numbers, if they hold, would still fall short of the 65.4% of the Maryland vote that the Democratic ticket of Harris and President Joe Biden took in the 2020 election. Trump won 32.2% of the Maryland vote that year.
For Harris, 58% of likely voters had a favorable opinion and 41% held an unfavorable opinion. Trump’s favorables are under water in Maryland, where just 37% of likely voters have a favorable opinion and 61% see the former president unfavorably.
Harris and Trump do well within their own parties. Both, however, have failed to connect with a majority of independent voters. Among likely independent voters in the poll, Harris favorables to unfavorables was 46% to 50%; for Trump, it was 40% favorable and 56% unfavorable.