TO SAY JOHN DEATON is running from behind in his quest to unseat Sen. Elizabeth Warren is, to put it in seasonal context, a bit like saying the Patriots have work to do to be competitive this year. Both are true statements, but they don’t seem to do full justice to the reality faced by each.
A poll last month, conducted for CommonWealth Beacon and WBUR by the MassINC Polling Group, showed Warren with a 21-point lead over her Republican challenger, an up-from-nothing Michigan native who’s met with success as a personal injury lawyer and cryptocurrency advocate. The state’s voters do not seem inclined to send a freshman foot soldier to join Mitch McConnell’s Republican army in hyper-polarized Washington.
Which explains why Deaton was on the State House steps on Tuesday desperately trying to establish some separation between himself and a national GOP brand that has become a toxic turnoff to voters in deep blue Massachusetts. The topic of the day was abortion rights, which Deaton vowed to champion with all the zeal of the most ardent pro-choice lawmakers, a stance that puts him very much at odds with his party’s national orientation on the issue.
Like the Patriots, Deaton clearly has his work cut out for him. But his campaign points to an internal poll showing it’s not quite as steep a hill when voters learn more about their candidate on issues like abortion.
The Deaton camp commissioned Opinion Diagnostics, a polling and market research firm run by Brian Wynne, who served as an advisor and campaign manager for Gov. Charlie Baker, to test his standing in the race. The poll of 638 likely Massachusetts voters found the race initially breaking for Warren by the same 21-point margin as seen in the recent CommonWealth Beacon poll. (The Deaton poll had Warren leading 53-32, while the CommonWealth Beacon poll had the race at 56-35, with fewer undecided voters.)
When voters were prompted with a set of statements about the candidates, however, Warren’s advantage narrowed. Respondents were given a thumbnail of Deaton’s biography, including being born into poverty and a childhood marked by violence and sexual abuse. They were told he was first in his family to graduate from high school, later became a Marine, a federal prosecutor, and is now a moderate pro-choice Republican who “models himself after former Governor Charlie Baker – someone focused on getting things done rather than playing partisan politics.”
Based on that information, the poll says, 47 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote for Deaton, 13 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Warren, while 33 percent said it had no effect on their choice.
That prompt was followed by a statement contrasting the candidates’ stands on immigration – highlighting Warren’s vote against a bipartisan immigration reform bill and Deaton’s support for stronger efforts to identify and deport “dangerous criminals who are in the country illegally;” a claim that Warren is ranked among the most partisan politicians in the country, while Deaton was recently a registered independent and vows to work to end “partisan disfunction;” and claims that Deaton believes that reckless government spending is the chief cause of inflation, while Warren points to corporate greed.
When asked about the race following all the prompts, according to the poll, Warren’s lead narrows to nine points, 49-40, with just under 12 percent undecided.
The results show that Deaton “is poised to capture the momentum in this race,” Deaton communications director Claire Hardwick said in a statement.
As with the recent CommonWealth Beacon poll, the bad news – and potentially good news – for Deaton in the campaign-sponsored poll is that nearly half of all voters say they’ve never heard of him (45 percent vs. 47 percent in the CommonWealth Beacon poll). That could suggest Deaton has more room to grow than a candidate who is better known to the electorate, but there are less than five weeks until Election Day for him to build his case, with early voting starting even sooner.
The poll also found Warren’s favorable vs. unfavorable rating to be tepid, 50-41, a result in line with other polling.
“The survey showed that John Deaton can readily close the gap with Warren in the coming six weeks,” wrote Wynne in a September 25 memo outlining the poll findings. “While Deaton has work to do to distinguish himself from a generic Republican, a pathway and tools exist for him to do so.”
The poll questions probably provide a preview of the pathway he’ll follow in making his case. But even the poll’s most favorable shading of the race leaves Deaton with a nine-point deficit. Avoiding a blowout may beat expectations, but it won’t win a Senate seat.
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