Lt. Governor Mark Robinson challenges Attorney General Josh Stein to a debate in the final weeks of the gubernatorial campaign. (Photo: Screengrab from Robinson’s X/Twitter account)
A new Meredith College Poll released Friday contains more bad news for North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s already struggling gubernatorial campaign. The poll found CNN’s recent report that he made inflammatory and offensive comments on a porn website prior to the start of his political career caused an immediate drop in Robinson’s support.
The CNN story broke Sept. 19 — right in the midst of the Sept. 17-20 time period in which Meredith was contacting voters. Robinson has said the CNN report is untrue.
The Meredith pollsters reported an electoral gap between the Democratic candidate, Attorney General Josh Stein, and Robinson at about eight points, 50-42 percent, during the first two days of data collection. After the story broke, however, the gap grew to 13 percent, with Stein holding 50-37 percent lead.
All told, the survey found Stein with a double-digit lead over Robinson, 50-40 percent, with the CNN story deterring supporters from Robinson without adding measurably to Stein. There was a sample size of 802 North Carolina likely voters and a confidence interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
“The CNN story clearly had an impact on voter perceptions, but Robinson’s campaign was already struggling against the Stein campaign,” Meredith Poll director David McLennan said in a statement.
Robinson continues to enjoy support among conservative, rural, and older voters, but not from other populations.
McLennan said he suspected the actual margin between the candidates in November would be smaller than the current polling average.
“This is not because the polls are wrong, but that some Republican or Republican-leaning voters simply won’t be able to vote for a Democrat,” he said.
The poll also further confirmed North Carolina’s status as a battleground state in the presidential election, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tied at 48 percent each.
Two percent of respondents said they were undecided, and another two percent said they would support third-party candidates.
This margin could be significant. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by about 75,000 votes out of about 5.5 million votes cast, or 1.3 percent.
McLennan predicts the remainder of the campaign will be over unaffiliated voters in the suburbs. Harris currently has a small lead among suburban voters, but a small shift could drastically change the tight election’s outcome.
A victory in the electoral college hinges on North Carolina and the other six swing states. Both parties are targeting the state, with the candidates at the top of the ticket and their surrogates making a steady parade of visits.
“The Trump campaign will continue to pour resources into the state,” McLennan said. “If Harris is able to squeak by and win North Carolina, her chances of winning the presidency are greatly enhanced.”