THE SWITCH AT the top of the presidential ticket has given an added boost to the Democratic advantage in Massachusetts. A new CommonWealth Beacon/WBUR poll of likely voters in the November elections finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by a 28-percentage point margin.
That’s a big jump from the 18-point lead enjoyed by President Biden in a CommonWealth Beacon poll in March, when he was the presumed Democratic nominee, and seems to reflect the surge of enthusiasm seen nationally for the Democratic ticket after Harris replaced Biden.
Among likely Massachusetts voters, Harris is the choice of 59 percent while 31 percent say they’ll vote for Trump. When the poll includes those leaning but not yet fully committed to a candidate, each gains 1 point, with Harris favored 60-32.
Harris and Trump also split voters who initially favor some other candidate. When those voters are asked to pick one of the major-party nominees, Harris leads 63 percent to 35 percent.
The poll was conducted by the MassINC Polling Group from September 12 to 18 among 800 likely Massachusetts voters and made possible through a grant from the Knight Election Hub. It has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Harris’ performance is a dramatic improvement over Biden’s performance in the March poll. Then Biden led Trump 46 percent to 28 percent. An 18-point lead would be impressive anywhere but deep blue Massachusetts, where it was an early sign of the persistent lack of support that culminated in Biden’s departure from the race after the first presidential debate in June.
Harris’s 28-point margin, if it holds, would track with Hillary Clinton’s 27-point win over Trump in 2016. Biden defeated Trump by 34 points in 2020, the largest Democratic blowout in Massachusetts since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson trounced Barry Goldwater by 53 points, 76-23.
Harris’s overall strength in the Democratic stronghold is not surprising, but it is also remarkably comprehensive, with the vice president favored over her Republican opponent by nearly every measure and subgroup in the poll. Harris leads Trump in every geographic region of the state and among every demographic subgroup in the poll except two: self-identified Republicans and men under the age of 45. She is winning among men overall (50-41), but there is a substantial gender gap, with Harris leading among women by an astonishing 47 points (69-22).
A majority of voters (58 percent) have favorable views of both Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. By contrast, 58 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 61 percent have an unfavorable of his vice-presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio. The fact that so many voters have an opinion of both VP picks only months after their introduction to the national stage is a sign that the electorate is tuned in and paying attention.
Harris is preferred over Trump on every candidate attribute tested in the poll. When asked which of the two each statement better describes, 60 percent or more think Harris is “mentally sharp” (62-25), “likely to follow the law” (62-25), “expresses a positive view of future of America” (61-28), and “is a person of strong moral character.” Majorities think Harris will “represent all Americans” (58-29), “keep America safe” (55-36), and “seems like someone you can relate to” (55-21).
The only two attributes where Harris’s edge dips below a majority are crucial ones, however. Harris leads Trump by 12 points on “knows how to manage the economy” (48-36). And the two are neck-and-neck on the question of who “will bring real change to Washington” (39-35); 20% of voters thought that statement described neither candidate.
These two attributes may be the key to the race in more competitive states. In Massachusetts, 55 percent of voters say that jobs, wages, and the economy matter most to their presidential vote, the top issue tested. And 50 percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction, suggesting a preference for change over continuity.
But for now, the change that seems to have made the most difference in the state is the one at the top of the Democratic ticket, with Kamala Harris poised to repeat recent Democratic dominance of the presidential race in Massachusetts.
Richard Parr is senior research director at the MassINC Polling Group.
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