Vice President Kamala Harris has made a dent in former President Donald Trump’s lead among likely Iowa voters in the most recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. (Photos by Win McNamee and Megan Varner/Getty Images, photo illustration via Canva)
The most recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that while Vice President Kamala Harris has made a significant dent in former President Donald Trump’s lead in Iowa ahead of the 2024 presidential election, more Iowans still favor Trump on issues like inflation, immigration and U.S. international relations.
Iowa Poll results published Tuesday found 58% of likely voters responded that they believe Trump would do a better job than Harris on “keeping America secure,” and 50% responded they believed he would do better on “bringing about real change” than Harris at 46%. Trump was also favored by a percentage point over Harris as the better candidate on “winning the respect of world leaders” and “caring about people like you.”
Harris was chosen as the better candidate by 47% of poll respondents on “being more trustworthy” than Trump, and 46% of likely voters said they believed the vice president would do a better job of “successfully unifying the country.” Trump was the choice of 45% on trustworthiness and 39% on unifying the country.
The poll also found a majority of likely Iowa voters believe Trump would do a better job than Harris on the issues of inflation, immigration, relations with China, the wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas, as well as on housing prices. The only issue Iowa voters favored Harris on in the most recent poll was abortion, with 53% saying Harris would do a better job and 42% supporting Trump as the best choice to tackle the issue.
The largest margin between the candidates was on inflation, with 57% choosing Trump as the better candidate for addressing the issue compared to 41% for Harris.
Though results show that Iowans still favor Trump on being able to handle a variety of issues, the latest Iowa Poll also showcased increased support for Harris in the state. Results released Sunday found that Trump leads Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters, a very different view of the upcoming election in Iowa from the June poll that showed Trump leading President Joe Biden in Iowa 50% to 32%.
The drop from an 18-percentage-point lead to just 4 points for Trump in Iowa comes following major changes in the race. Biden, who won the 2024 Democratic presidential nominating process, dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris who went on to accept the nomination in August. Since the changes at the top of the ticket for Democrats, polls have shown Harris holding a stronger position than Biden — data compiled by FiveThirtyEight found that Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points in national polls as of Tuesday, as well as being ahead by smaller margins in some swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada.
Leading into the 2024 election, many forecasters saw Iowa as a state firmly locked down for Republicans. Trump won Iowa in the 2020 presidential election with 53% to Biden’s 45%, and won Iowa in 2016 with 52% to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s 42%. Though the poll found that the former president still has a lead in his race against Harris, J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. that conducted the poll, said “the race has tightened significantly.”
Part of the shift comes from increased engagement in the election, with 81% of Iowa poll takers saying they will definitely vote in the general election, an increase from 76% in June. Compared to the last poll, there was a 10 percentage point increase in Iowans younger than age 45 who said they were likely voters, and an 8-point increase among women voters — both demographics that the poll identified as more likely to support Harris.
The results seem to reflect what some Iowa Democratic leaders have predicted about Harris’ impact on the race. Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said in August that the vice president’s candidacy has brought “enthusiasm and excitement” to the election, reinvigorating some Democrats who may have opted out of voting because they felt “disillusioned” by politics in recent election cycles.
But Republican leaders disputed the poll results showing a positive shift for Democrats ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
“Three things in life are certain: death, taxes, and the Des Moines Register pumping up a losing candidate every four years in September,” Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said in a statement to the Iowa Capital Dispatch.
The Iowa Poll was conducted from Sept. 8-11 with 811 Iowans — 656 who identified as likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points with likely voters, and a 3.4 percentage points margin of error for questions asked of all Iowans.