Biden’s disastrous debate was entirely predictable, and utterly avoidable

Guests at the Old Town Pour House in Chicago watch a debate between President Joe Biden and Republican nominee Donald Trump on June 27, 2024. Photo by Scott Olson | Getty Images

In 2019, I angered many of my Democrat friends by saying the party had become more mired in establishment politics than its Republican counterpart, now dominated by MAGA acolytes. I predicted that Joe Biden, who was already showing signs of decline, would win the 2020 election by a razors edge, and lose a bid for a second term, because, well, he’d appear too incoherent and weak — and his running mate is disapproved by too many, including many Democrats — to win over disaffected Republicans, independents and Blue Dog Democrats. 

I wish I was wrong. 

Millions also expected that last week’s presidential debate would be a disaster, for the reasons listed above. It was. The president showed all of his 81 years, plus some, and it may have cost the Democrats the election — and America its democracy. 

Leading Democrats stubbornly cling to elderly, white men, despite the fact that the party’s energy and innovation is far more diverse. What’s more predictable is that, instead of pulling the plug, they’ll likely ride their likable, but aged and outwardly impaired, warhorse into defeat in November. 

Imagine being so shockingly unintelligible that you make an utterly shameless and shady Donald Trump look acceptable. 

Indeed, Trump, with his lies and dozens of felonies, didn’t win the debate — Biden lost it. Why? Because, he never should have been there in the first place, but there he was, in part because of Democratic Party patronage and late 20th century acceptability politics. There are too many highly qualified people from more relatable backgrounds for the party to genuflect at the altar of the usual suspects that the rank-and-file appear to be beholden to.

For the most part, this dynamic is what led to Biden being set up for failure in the debate. I like Biden, but Democrats started fumbling the ball after the diverse Barack Obama coalition made history in 2008. They abandoned youth, vigor, vision, and relatability, for whitewashed conventionality. The Obama coalition is our present and future, but the Democratic power structure doesn’t act like it, leaving many of us who watched that trainwreck of a debate thinking, “They’re not like us.” 

And here we are, just like many others and I projected in 2019. Unless something remarkable happens, Trump will be sworn in again in January, and the predictable and stubborn Democrat establishment will have been co-architects of democracy’s demise. 

Winter is coming.

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