A voter walks toward the stairs leading to an early voting polling location at the Lake Vista Community Center in New Orleans Friday, Oct. 25, 2024.(Matthew Perschall for Louisiana Illuminator)
It’s here. Election Day 2024.
And even for a politics nerd like me, I have to admit my usual excitement — think about the kid who was excited to get socks on Christmas morning — is tempered with trepidation over the uncertainty that abounds this year.
It’s not the widespread worry over who wins the presidential election. I’m old enough to know our democracy was built to survive the swings of extremism in either direction, though its joints are showing some wear and tear.
No, this is more about just not having a firm idea this year of election outcomes in general.
This must have been what it felt like to be a weather forecaster in the days before Super Doppler 9000. Will it rain? Will it snow? Will control of the statehouse flip from the Bull Moose Party to the Greenbacks?
We’ll just have to wait and see.
In the meantime, here’s what I’ve been trying to read in the tea leaves without much success.
1) Voter fraud claims — or the absence of them
For all the fuss, rumor mongering and election denying rhetoric at times within the Capitol, state and local election officials — both Democrat and Republican — have consistently attested Louisiana’s elections are safe and accurate. Yet that didn’t provide enough assurance for conservatives who pushed legislation earlier this year based on arguments that more election security is needed.
The new laws include specific clampdowns on absentee ballots and voter registration drives, and a rather vague expansion of the state’s existing voter fraud laws. Also, voter advocates were able to get the state to add three extra days of early voting in Louisiana for the presidential election cycle..
Aside from giving Democrats another seat in the U.S. House, Louisiana’s Election Day results will have little impact on the bigger national battle for control of Congress and the White House. So while you won’t see the intense scrutiny swing states expect here, it’s still worth monitoring whether officials report any problems at the polls.
2) Turnout among women
In the first election since the U.S. Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade, it was anticipated that reproductive health would drive women to the polls this year.
Louisiana, where 51.1% of residents are women, is home to one of the nation’s strictest abortion bans, with only rigid exceptions that have led reproductive health care providers to leave the state. In addition, a new Louisiana law — the only one of its kind in the nation — went into effect Oct. 1 that designated the pregnancy care drugs mifepristone and misoprostol as dangerous controlled substances.
Both are prescribed for medication abortions, but they also have other medical uses. Misoprostol most notably is the go-to drug for treating life-threatening, post-delivery hemorrhages, among other uses.
Figures from the Louisiana secretary of state show, as of Nov. 1, women made up 55% of the state’s registered voters. That’s less than one percentage point more than before Roe was overturned in summer 2022, triggering Louisiana’s stringent abortion law into effect.
In the midterm congressional elections that same year, the participation rate for women was 55%. In the first statewide election with the abortion ban in place — the 2023 governor’s race – the share of Louisiana women voting stayed at 55%.
In this year’s early voting period (including absentee ballots counted through Nov. 1), the turnout figure for women was 57%. That might be the start of a trend, but it’s probably not enough to change the expected outcome in a state that Donald Trump won decisively in 2016 and 2020 with 58% support in both elections.
Republicans hold a big edge with nearly 45% of early and absentee ballots cast this year, compared with 36% for Democrats. We’ll see if that holds up on Election Day.
3) Black voter turnout
Black residents accounted for 30.3% of Louisiana’s population in 2022 based on the most recent Census revisions, but they cast only 25% of the early votes and absentee ballots as of Nov. 1.
That lean showing means more when you consider the share of registered Black voters in Louisiana is unchanged from four years ago at 31.2%. But in 2020, there were almost 15,500 more Black voters registered in the state than there are now. Any thoughts that having a Black presidential candidate in the race would spur a significant increase in Black voter registration in Louisiana were unrealized.
However, it should be noted there are about 47,000 more Black voters today in Louisiana than when Barack Obama sought the presidency in 2008.
Unlike 16 years ago, Louisiana now has two majority-Black congressional districts — the 2nd and the newly reconfigured 6th. Together, the districts accounted for 57% of early and absentee Black votes heading into Election Day.
In 2020, 63% of registered Black voters in Louisiana took part in the election Joe Biden won, compared with 70% of white voters. It will be interesting to see where those numbers end up this year.
4) The lone constitutional amendment
If you weren’t aware there’s a proposed change to the Louisiana Constitution on the ballot Tuesday, it would be understandable.
There were no organized, statewide campaigns for or against the amendment that would dedicate any revenue from renewable energy projects on Louisiana’s Outer Continental Shelf to coastal protection and restoration efforts. Even issue-neutral, educational campaigns for the proposal were low key.
The fate of the amendment could come down to whether voters have done their homework and taken an actual position. Without such edification, the measure might suffer a “when in doubt, vote no” fate.
